Nevada House District 2: The 3:27 AM ET Vote Reduction & Turnout-vs-Vote Anomaly
Forensic verification of the Election Night Reporting (ENR) reduction of 34,957 votes from Democrat Teresa Benitez-Thompson and 56,239 votes (reported as 56,329) from Republican David Flippo (a net loss of 21,282 votes from Flippo), alongside a county-by-county reconciliation of actual 2026 ballots cast by party registration against reported candidate totals.
Exact sum of all 11 non-Washoe CD2 counties on Nov 4
89,335 NP + Other (27.6%) · 323,452 Party Check-Ins
Flippo: 142,433 (44.28%) · Chapman: 17,594 (5.47%)
Washoe County swung 56,825 votes (R+12.6k → D+44.2k)
1. Exact Mathematical Proof of the 3:27 AM Eastern Vote Reduction Numbers
Cross-referencing the official NVSOS Nov 4 summary (Release f355f384-0534-45e4-a7b0-243d84110cc2) proves to the single vote where 34,957, 56,239 (transposed as 56,329), 21,282, and 18,896 / 18,983 originated.
If an ENR feed added the 11 rural county feeds (34,957 D / 56,239 R) on top of the NVSOS CD2 summary (144,014 D / 125,031 R), Flippo led 181,270 to 178,971.
Exact sum of all 11 non-Washoe counties in CD2. Note: 56,239 - 34,957 = 21,282 (proving 56,329 in the viral note was a middle-digit transposition of 56,239).
Washoe (109,057 D / 68,792 R) + 11 Rurals (34,957 D / 56,239 R). Notice 18,983 - 18,896 = 87 (exact Eureka County DEM vote total).
Late mail/provisional updates added +17,614 D and +17,402 R across Washoe, Carson City, Douglas, Lyon, Elko, and Churchill.
Democrat (Teresa Benitez-Thompson) — Nov 4 NVSOS
144,014 (CD2 Total) - 109,057 (Washoe) = 34,957 (11 Rurals)
Breakdown of the 11 non-Washoe counties: Carson City (10,281) + Douglas (8,940) + Lyon (7,288) + Churchill (2,654) + Elko (1,794) + Humboldt (1,514) + White Pine (779) + Storey (745) + Lander (450) + Pershing (425) + Eureka (87) = 34,957.
Republican (David Flippo) — Nov 4 NVSOS
125,031 (CD2 Total) - 68,792 (Washoe) = 56,239 (11 Rurals)
Breakdown of the 11 non-Washoe counties: Douglas (14,028) + Lyon (13,494) + Carson City (8,148) + Churchill (5,927) + Elko (4,744) + Humboldt (3,517) + White Pine (2,038) + Lander (1,347) + Storey (1,296) + Pershing (1,117) + Eureka (583) = 56,239 (and 56,239 - 34,957 = 21,282).
2. County-by-County Forensic Reconciliation: Actual Ballots Cast by Party vs. Reported CD2 Votes
Comparing actual 2026 ballots cast by voter party registration (NVSOS Mail/Early Returns + VIVID Election Day Check-Ins) against reported candidate votes across all 12 reporting CD2 counties.
3. Interactive Mathematical Solver: What Crossover or Nonpartisan Split Is Required for the Reported CD2 Totals?
Select any CD2 county or aggregate below and adjust party loyalty assumptions to test whether the reported candidate vote totals are mathematically achievable under realistic Nonpartisan and party-crossover rates.
4. DataRepublican (@DataRepublican) 3-Cycle Turnout Model & 93-Snapshot VIVID Time-Series Explorer
Live integration of DataRepublican's nv_2026_general.json dataset (InPersonTurnout-EV-3378.csv + TV-PRD2-SeedData-3601.csv + 93 intraday snapshots from Oct 17 to Nov 3 6:03 PM PT) comparing 2022, 2024, and 2026 partisan turnout across CD2, Washoe, Clark, Rural, and Statewide. Note: CD2 is the only Congressional District explicitly defined in DataRepublican's Nevada dataset.
5. National Forecaster Consensus Matrix (13 of 14 Called NV-02 for Flippo) & The Governor Split-Ticket Paradox
Post-mortem data from electindex.com/forecasts/postmortem/ (window.EI_PM, Nov 5, 2026) and ElectIndex/26_us_forecast_data showing that 13 of 14 major national election models and prediction markets priced Republican David Flippo as the favorite in NV-02.
| Forecaster / Prediction Market | Category | Pre-Election Flippo (REP) Win Prob | Pre-Election Benitez-Thompson (DEM) Win Prob | Called Favorite | Forecaster Visual Bar (R vs. D) | Post-Mortem Status |
|---|
2026 Nevada General Election Turnout Tracker (Mail + Early + VIVID Election Day)
Full statewide and district-level participation breakdown combining NVSOS cumulative mail/early returns (through Nov 4, 2026) and NVSOS VIVID Election Day voter check-ins across all 17 counties and 120 jurisdictions.
Interactive Nevada Choropleth Map
Click any polygon to inspect registration, ballot returns, and historical cohorts.
Daily Cumulative Mail & Early Turnout Progression (Oct 15 – Nov 4, 2026)
19 daily NVSOS cumulative snapshots showing Democratic, Republican, and Nonpartisan/Other ballot accumulation.
Election Day (Nov 3) Half-Hourly VIVID Check-In Timeline
Statewide in-person Election Day turnout progression from 7:00 AM to 9:30 PM PST (209,250 Election Day voters).
2026 Statewide Turnout by Age Bracket & Party
Participation rate and party composition across 7 age cohorts (18–24 through 75+).
| Age Group | Total Voted | Share | DEM | REP | NP + Other | Net Margin |
|---|
Registered Non-Participants by Prior General Election Frequency
1,488,932 registered voters who had not cast a mail/early ballot by Nov 4, segmented by 2018–2024 voting frequency.
| Prior General Frequency | Total Remaining | DEM | REP | NP + Other | Party Edge |
|---|
120-Jurisdiction Turnout, Registration & Cohort Explorer
Explore all 17 Counties, 4 Congressional Districts, 21 State Senate Districts, 42 Assembly Districts, Regions, Cities, Wards, and County Commission Districts.
| Jurisdiction | Type | Active Reg | BR+EV Total | Turnout % | DEM | REP | NP+Oth | Ballot Margin |
|---|
2026 Nevada General Election Official Results Explorer (372 Contests)
Live NVSOS SilverState API (Sequence 54, Nov 8, 2026 5:56 PM PT) across all Federal, Statewide, Legislative, Judicial, and County contests.
Interactive Race Scenario Simulator vs. Reported 2026 Results
Model expected Democratic vs. Republican vote totals from actual ballot turnout by party for any Nevada jurisdiction and compare against reported 2026 election results.
Data Sources, Forensic Methodologies & Open Research Collaboration
Every statistic, chart, and mathematical proof on NevadaElectionData.com is built from verifiable public election records, official NVSOS machine feeds, and open-source peer datasets (including DataRepublican / Jennica Pounds and ElectIndex). We publish our complete raw JSON/GeoJSON bundles and mathematical formulas below so independent journalists, data scientists, campaigns, and Nevada citizens can audit our work, replicate every calculation, and help investigate open anomalies.
Download
election_data_2026.json →
nv_2026_general.json).Download
nv_2026_datarepublican.json →
Download
electindex_nv_2026.json →
1. Primary & Peer Election Data Sources Registry
Exact upstream URLs, release UUIDs, NVSOS published document IDs, and open-source repositories integrated into this platform.
| Source / Provider | Feed / Artifact Identifier | Timestamp / Coverage | What We Extract & Verify |
|---|---|---|---|
| NVSOS SilverState Election API silverstateelection.nv.gov |
Sequence 54Release 73d54129-390c-44bf-aea0-5b60b1ecbfd6Election ID 35 |
Nov 8, 2026 5:56 PM PT (17 Counties · 372 Contests) |
Official candidate vote totals, county-by-county breakdowns, and reported county ballot turnout (1,111,013 statewide; 312,078 in CD2). |
| NVSOS Election Summary Baseline nvsos.gov/SOSelectionPages/results/2026StateWideGeneral/ElectionSummary.aspx |
Release f355f384-0534-45e4-a7b0-243d84110cc2 |
Nov 4, 2026 1:55 PM PT (Post-Election Night Snapshot) |
Proves to the single vote that the 11 non-Washoe CD2 counties totaled exactly 34,957 D and 56,239 R (net -21,282 Flippo), and Washoe + 11 Rurals = 144,014 D vs. 125,031 R (+18,983; +18,896 excluding Eureka's 87 D votes). |
| NVSOS VIVID & TotalVoter Live Feeds Via NVSOS & DataRepublican Capture |
InPersonTurnout-EV-3378.csvTV-PRD2-SeedData-3601.csv |
Oct 17 – Nov 3, 2026 6:03 PM PT (93 Intraday Captures + Half-Hourly ED) |
Voter-verified check-ins by party registration (DEM, REP, NP, OTHER) across Mail Sent, Mail Received, Mail Accepted, Early Voting in-person, and Election Day in-person check-ins. |
| NVSOS Historical Baseline PDFs nvsos.gov/sos/home/showpublisheddocument/<ID> |
2024 Docs: 14936, 15175, 15362, 15364, 154492022 Docs: 11194, 11208, 112972026 Reg: News 3788/23 |
2022 General, 2024 General & Aug/Oct 2026 Active Registration | Official NVSOS cumulative mail/EASE/EV/ED turnout benchmarks and active voter registration baselines used to measure multi-cycle partisan turnout shifts. |
| DataRepublican (Jennica Pounds) datarepublican.com/nevada/ · /clark/ · /browse/ github.com/DataRepublican/datarepublican |
nevada/nv_2026_general.jsonnevada/nevada.jsclark/nv_encoding.js990tools/ & browse/data_files.js |
Updated Nov 3–4, 2026 (IRS 990 DB: 2026-10-01) |
CD2 regional aggregation, county-proportional Other split model, 93-snapshot intraday turnout curve, 11-byte bit-packed Clark County voter mail-ballot return format, and 2.62M charity / 5.61M grant IRS 990 + USAspending + FEC officer network. |
| ElectIndex Open Forecast & EV Stack electindex.com/forecasts/postmortem/ github.com/ElectIndex/26_us_forecast_data github.com/ElectIndex/26_early_vote |
window.EI_PM (pm-data.js)output/races_summary.csvoutput/cd_projections.csvsrc/ev/adapters/nv.py |
Post-Mortem: Nov 5, 2026 Early Vote: Nov 9, 2026 |
14-forecaster consensus matrix on NV-02 (13 of 14 called Flippo R), NV-GOV by-CD projection (showing NV-02 projected at R +7.87% for Governor), 7-identity NVSOS PDF arithmetic verifier, and civicAPI fallback. |
| Nevada Statewide Voter File (SWVF) & 17 County Clerks NVSOS EL68A + County Voter Exports |
120-Jurisdiction Crosswalk & Cohort Aggregations | Oct 15 – Nov 4, 2026 Daily Extracts | Precinct-to-district mapping across 17 counties, 4 CDs, 21 Senate districts, 42 Assembly districts, 30 cities/wards, and 8 county commission districts; age brackets (18–24 to 75+) and 2018–2024 voting frequency cohorts. |
2. Reproducible Forensic Methodologies & Mathematical Models
Below are the exact mathematical identities and analytical models implemented across our audit modules.
Methodology A · ENR Sub-Aggregation Delta Identity (The 3:27 AM ET Proof)
ΔD = CD2Nov4,D − WashoeNov4,D = 144,014 − 109,057 = 34,957ΔR = CD2Nov4,R − WashoeNov4,R = 125,031 − 68,792 = 56,239
To determine whether an Election Night Reporting (ENR) vote drop is a precinct deletion or a feed-aggregation change, we test whether the removed block equals a exact geographic sub-aggregate. In NV-02, the removed block (34,957 D / 56,239 R, net -21,282 R) equals to the single vote the sum of all 11 non-Washoe counties in NVSOS Release f355f384. Furthermore, 56,239 − 34,957 = 21,282 proves the widely shared 56,329 figure was a middle-digit transposition of 56,239.
Methodology B · Partisan Envelope vs. Candidate Vote Crossover Solver
NPreq,D = [ VD − (BD × LD) − (BR × XR→D) ] / (BOth − V3rd)
Every accepted mail, early, and Election Day ballot comes from a registered voter with a known party affiliation (BD, BR, BOth), while candidate tallies (VD, VR, V3rd) come from tabulators. In NV-02, BR = 135,761 and BD = 98,356 (R +37,405 ballot lead), yet VD = 161,628 (164.3% of BD). Even with 95% D loyalty and 5% R-to-D crossover, Benitez-Thompson requires 85%+ to 99%+ of all remaining Nonpartisan ballots in Washoe County while losing rural CD2 by 28,583 votes.
Methodology C · DataRepublican County-Proportional "Other" Split
OtherD,c = Otherc × [ Dc / (Dc + Rc) ], OtherR,c = Otherc − OtherD,c
Implemented in DataRepublican's nevada/nevada.js (summarize()): rather than applying a flat statewide split to Nonpartisan/Other voters, each county's Other ballots are allocated in proportion to that specific county's two-party D / (D + R) turnout ratio. Because Republicans led two-party turnout in both Washoe County (61,329 R vs. 58,957 D at 6:03 PM PT; 68,854 R vs. 65,931 D final) and the 11 rural CD2 counties, CD2's implied two-party ballot margin expands from R +33,980 (raw) to R +44,052 (R +15.11%).
Methodology D · Bit-Packed Voter History & Household Clustering (clark/nv_encoding.js)
word32 = histMask(4b) | pct(6b) | status(2b) | party(3b) | retDay(5b) | sendDay(3b) | cd(6b)
DataRepublican's Clark County mail-ballot explorer packs each voter into an 11-byte binary struct with a 4-election history bitmask (2024P, 2022G, 2022P, 2020G), active/inactive status, mail send/return day index, and a sameAsPrev coordinate bit flagging voters at identical residential coordinates. Filtering for sameAsPrev == 1 && histMask == 0 && status == Inactive isolates high-density addresses returning batches of zero-history mail ballots on the same date.
3. How You Can Help: Open Investigation & Public Records Tracks
We built NevadaElectionData.com to empower transparent, crowd-sourced civic auditing. Here are the four highest-priority investigation tracks where researchers, attorneys, and Nevada residents can contribute:
Ballot-Level Split-Ticket Verification
Request the anonymized precinct-level Cast Vote Record (CVR) JSON/CSV exports from the Washoe County Registrar of Voters and the 11 rural CD2 county clerks under the Nevada Public Records Act (NRS Chapter 239). The CVR allows direct ballot-by-ballot counting of how many ballots voted Republican for Governor (Lombardo) / State Senate (SD-16 Krasner) / Assembly (AD-26 DeLong) while simultaneously voting Democrat for U.S. House (Benitez-Thompson).
Precinct Envelope-to-Vote Reconciliation
Compare each Washoe County precinct's VIVID voter check-in count by party (Mail Accepted + EV + ED) against the precinct's reported candidate votes in the certified Statement of Votes Cast (SOVC). Flag any precinct where Benitez-Thompson's vote total exceeds 100% of DEM check-ins + 80% of NP check-ins or where total contest votes diverge from ballots cast.
TV-PRD2 Seed File & First-Time Mail Clusters
In DataRepublican's 6:03 PM PT Election Day snapshot, CD2 had 182,812 mail ballots received (rcvd) vs. 157,802 accepted (mail) — a gap of 25,010 unaccepted/pending mail ballots (`16,294` in Washoe alone). Reconcile the post-Election Day mail acceptance batches (Nov 4 – Nov 8) by voter registration date, prior voting history (`0/4` vs `4/4`), and multi-unit address density.
501(c)(3)/(c)(4) Voter-Turnout Network Mapping
Using DataRepublican's Charity & Grant Explorer (/browse/) and Form 990 Schedule I / Part VII officer datasets, trace federal grants and national foundation disbursements flowing into Nevada voter-registration, ballot-collection, and curing organizations across Washoe and Clark counties.